Flight Prices Are Surging Because of the Iran War – Here’s Everything Business Travelers Need To Know

Updated: March 19, 2026

The Iran war is not only reshaping the Middle East its reshaping what you will pay to fly this summer

Since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28 more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East have been canceled

Oil markets have been thrown into chaos and airlines around the world are facing a financial crisis they cant easily escape All of these are related to what is currently happening in global politics. But for travelers like you and me this is going to have a huge impact on us when it comes to airfare over the next few months. 

On March 24-25, Iran launched fresh cluster strikes on Israel. The same week, a fuel tanker at Kuwait airport was hit, the first direct infrastructure strike outside Iranian territory. The U.S. struck Iran’s Kharg oil hub, one of the country’s primary crude export terminals. Each of these developments tightens the same chokepoint that is already squeezing airlines worldwide.

For business travelers and travel managers, the window to act is narrowing by the day.

The Fuel Price Timeline That Explains Everything

To understand why your next flight is more expensive, you need to understand what’s happened to jet fuel in the last four weeks.

• On February 27, the day before the strikes began, jet fuel was averaging $2.50 per gallon.
• By March 6, it had climbed to $3.78 per gallon.
• It peaked at $3.99 per gallon on March 13, before continuing to rise.
• Spot price hit $4.56 per gallon by March 20.
• The U.S. Jet-A average for March is now $6.86 per gallon.
• Global Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) hit $197 per barrel on March 25 — effectively doubled month-on-month.
• Brent crude closed at $102.24 per barrel on March 25, up 44% in a single month.
• IATA’s month-on-month jet fuel increase: 106%.

To put that in physical terms, filling the tanks of a single Boeing 737-800 cost around $17,000 on February 27. By early March it was over $27,000. At current prices, that number is still climbing.

The reason is one waterway. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas. Tanker traffic through it has dropped from roughly 100 vessels per day to just 6. Fuel analysts are now warning that actual shortages at major airports are a risk within weeks, not months.

Jet fuel is an airline’s second-largest operating cost after labor, typically accounting for 20–30% of total expenses.

Rob Britton, a retired American Airlines executive and adjunct professor of marketing at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business, didn’t mince words:

“If fuel prices remain high, fares will rise. There’s no mystery there. So just doing simple math, one might expect ticket prices to rise almost proportionately.”

Alaska Airlines CEO Ben Minicucci added a precise number to that at the JP Morgan Industrials Conference last week: every $1-per-gallon increase in jet fuel requires a 10% increase in airfares just to break even. Jet fuel is already up more than $2 per gallon since the war began.

How Much Have Fares Already Gone Up?

The data coming in from analysts is striking. A Deutsche Bank analysis found that average domestic U.S. airfares for travelers booking flights later this month have climbed between 15% and 124%. 

The picture on specific routes is even more dramatic:

• Transcontinental flights: (cross-country) saw the biggest week-over-week spike, averaging more than double, rising from $167 to $414. United Airlines is charging $502 for Washington Dulles to San Francisco, up from $149 a month ago. 
• New York to London: Delta’s fare rose from $285 to $553, while United’s climbed to $846, a 177% increase week-over-week. 
• Caribbean routes: up 58% on average, with JetBlue’s New York to Santo Domingo fare jumping from $165 to $566. 

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC the impact on fares would “probably start quick,” and that fuel prices could have a “meaningful” effect on the airline’s Q2 financial results.

Not All Fare Increases Look the Same

Here’s something most general news coverage is missing: the fare hikes won’t hit every traveler equally or at the same time.

Christopher Anderson, a professor at Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, explained that airlines will be strategic about where they push prices first. “Business travel, or premium fares, you’ll see those prices increase quicker,” Anderson said. “Leisure markets, your summer vacation routes, that will be a little bit slower.”

Airlines may also look to recover added costs through ancillary fees – seat upgrades, checked bags, and priority boarding, rather than headline fare increases, making the total cost of a trip higher even when base ticket prices appear stable.

What Airlines Are Doing And What It Means for Travelers & Bookers

What Airline CEOs Said at the JP Morgan Conference

Last week’s JP Morgan Industrials Conference in Washington was the first major gathering of U.S. airline CEOs since the war began. Here’s what came out of it.

• Delta, American, and United each reported roughly $400 million in additional fuel costs this quarter alone.
• Despite that, all three carriers reported record bookings. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said sales in the week before the conference were up 25% year-over-year, and that eight of Delta’s top 10 ticket sales days ever have happened this year.
• United CFO Mike Leskinen confirmed that for the first time, no major U.S. carrier holds fuel hedges. He called the industrywide pass-through of fuel costs to consumers “the natural hedge.” In plain terms, there is no buffer between rising fuel prices and your travel budget.
• United CEO Scott Kirby is already stress-testing a scenario where oil hits $175 per barrel and stays above $100 through end of 2027. In a letter to employees, he said if prices stay at current levels, it would add $11 billion to United’s annual fuel costs alone.
• United has trimmed its May and June capacity growth by 1 percentage point. American signaled it would do the same if needed. Fewer seats means less pressure on airlines to lower prices.

The takeaway for travel managers is straightforward, airlines are not absorbing this shock. They are passing it on, and right now strong demand is giving them every reason to keep doing it.

The Hidden Risk: Fewer Flights, Not Just Higher Prices

Rising fares may be the most visible consequence, but a reduction in available flights could hit travelers just as hard.

Griff warned that airlines will “have to keep very close tabs on costs if they want to have any semblance of a profitable summer.” Routes that were profitable at $2.50 per gallon fuel may simply not work at $3.99 per gallon. “Marginal flights are absolutely on the chopping block,” he said.

Airlines including Finnair, KLM, Lufthansa Group, and Wizz Air have already scrapped or suspended routes into the Middle East. This has pushed up fares on alternative routes as demand surges for flights that bypass the conflict zone. 

The summer fare picture has now been quantified.

• Average airfares for travel between April 20 and May 17 are already up 10–15% at the median compared to pre-war prices, according to Going.com’s Katy Nastro.
• Summer fares are running approximately 18% higher than the same period a year ago.
• And this is before the latest escalation, the cluster strikes, the Kharg hub attack, and the Kuwait tanker hit, has fully fed through to booking prices.

Tourism Economics managing director David Goodger told CNBC he now expects airfares to stay 5–10% higher than previously forecast across all of 2026 and 2027. 

What Should Travel Managers Do Right Now?

If you are responsible for booking flights for employees or CXOs, the next few weeks are critical. Here’s your action plan:

• Audit open itineraries immediately: Any unbooked or tentative trips for Q2 and summer are now at risk of significant cost increases. Get them confirmed.
• Switch to refundable or changeable fares: Flexibility is worth the premium right now. If the conflict de-escalates, you will want to rebook at lower fares without penalty.
• Front-load your summer travel bookings: Summer demand is already competing with reduced seat availability. The longer you wait, the fewer options your travelers will have.
• Set route-level fare alerts: Don’t rely on periodic checks. Daily monitoring on your most frequent corridors (especially transatlantic and APAC) is essential right now.
• Prioritize international bookings first: Domestic fares are rising too, but international routes especially those rerouting away from Middle East airspace are seeing the steepest and fastest increases.
• Revisit your travel policy’s airline preferences: With some carriers more exposed than others (see table above), now is a good time to steer travelers toward more price-stable options where possible.
• Brief your CXOs and frequent travelers: Don’t let them self-book assuming last month’s prices. Set expectations early.

Managing all of this manually across dozens of travelers is where things slip. 

ITILITE’s flight booking platform helps travel managers track fares, enforce policy, and control corporate travel costs – all in one place.

The Bottom Line

Nobody knows how long this war lasts. That’s precisely the problem.

If the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks, oil markets stabilize, and airlines quietly absorb what they can,  fares could plateau and even dip slightly by late spring. That’s the optimistic scenario.

But if the conflict drags past Memorial Day(May 25), the calculus changes entirely. Airlines for America has already flagged that point as the threshold where price increases stop being temporary and start becoming structural.

And summer, historically the strongest demand period of the year, arrives with fewer seats and higher prices fighting over the same pool of travelers.

IATA’s director general Willie Walsh has warned fares could jump as much as 9%, and that estimate was made before crude closed above $100 a barrel.

Book what you can afford to change. Lock in the summer trip now. And if prices do fall, rebook, most airlines will let you capture the difference in credit.