Updated: March 19, 2026
The Iran war is not only reshaping the Middle East, it’s reshaping what your company pays every time an employee books a flight. Since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28, more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East have been canceled. Oil markets are in turmoil, and airlines worldwide are facing a financial crisis they can’t easily escape.
For travel managers and central bookers, Iran war flight prices are already hitting budgets hard and the impact on corporate airfare is only getting bigger heading into summer.
The Fuel Price Timeline That Explains Everything
To understand why your next flight is more expensive, you need to understand what’s happened to jet fuel in the last three weeks.
- On February 27, the day before the strikes began – jet fuel was averaging $2.50 per gallon.
- By March 6, it had climbed to $3.78 per gallon.
- It peaked at $3.99 per gallon on Friday, March 13, before settling slightly.
- Brent crude meanwhile hit roughly $101 a barrel – up more than 50% over the past month.
- Argus US Jet Fuel Index rose 72% over the same period.
That’s a gain of more than 60% in under two weeks, triggered largely by the near-halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally handles about 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas.
Jet fuel is an airline’s second-largest operating cost after labor, typically accounting for 20–30% of total expenses.
Rob Britton, a retired American Airlines executive and adjunct professor of marketing at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business, didn’t mince words:
“If fuel prices remain high, fares will rise. There’s no mystery there. So just doing some simple math, one might expect ticket prices to rise almost proportionately.”
How Much Have Fares Already Gone Up?
The data coming in from analysts is striking. A Deutsche Bank analysis found that average domestic U.S. airfares for travelers booking flights later this month have climbed between 15% and 124%.
The picture on specific routes is even more dramatic:
- Transcontinental flights: (cross-country) saw the biggest week-over-week spike, averaging more than double, rising from $167 to $414. United Airlines is charging $502 for Washington Dulles to San Francisco, up from $149 a month ago.
- New York to London: Delta’s fare rose from $285 to $553, while United’s climbed to $846, a 177% increase week-over-week.
- Caribbean routes: up 58% on average, with JetBlue’s New York to Santo Domingo fare jumping from $165 to $566.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC the impact on fares would “probably start quick,” and that fuel prices could have a “meaningful” effect on the airline’s Q2 financial results.
Not All Fare Increases Look the Same
Here’s something most general news coverage is missing: the fare hikes won’t hit every traveler equally or at the same time.
Christopher Anderson, a professor at Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, explained that airlines will be strategic about where they push prices first. “Business travel, or premium fares, you’ll see those prices increase quicker,” Anderson said. “Leisure markets, your summer vacation routes, that will be a little bit slower.”
Airlines may also look to recover added costs through ancillary fees – seat upgrades, checked bags, and priority boarding, rather than headline fare increases, making the total cost of a trip higher even when base ticket prices appear stable.
What Airlines Are Doing And What It Means for Travelers & Bookers
| Airline(s) | What’s Happening | What It Means for Travelers & Bookers |
| Delta | Owns its own refinery | More price-stable than peers – worth prioritizing on key routes |
| Qantas, SAS, Air New Zealand | Announced fare hikes due to fuel spike | Expect higher quotes on international routes – lock in fares now |
| Cathay Pacific, AirAsia, Thai Airways | Raising fares + fuel surcharges | Asia Pacific routes getting costlier fast |
| Hong Kong Airlines | Fuel surcharges up by 35% | Routes to Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal now carry steep added fees |
| Southwest | Dropped fuel hedging program | Higher exposure to fuel spikes, fares may be less predictable |
| Spirit Airlines | Recently exited bankruptcy | Risk of route cuts or sudden fare swings, avoid relying on for critical trips |
| US Airlines (broadly) | No coordinated hike announcements yet | Individual fare increases still likely, monitor booked itineraries closely |
The Hidden Risk: Fewer Flights, Not Just Higher Prices
Rising fares may be the most visible consequence, but a reduction in available flights could hit travelers just as hard.
Griff warned that airlines will “have to keep very close tabs on costs if they want to have any semblance of a profitable summer.” Routes that were profitable at $2.50 per gallon fuel may simply not work at $3.99 per gallon. “Marginal flights are absolutely on the chopping block,” he said.
Airlines including Finnair, KLM, Lufthansa Group, and Wizz Air have already scrapped or suspended routes into the Middle East. This has pushed up fares on alternative routes as demand surges for flights that bypass the conflict zone.
What Should Travel Managers Do Right Now?
If you are responsible for booking flights for employees or CXOs, the next few weeks are critical. Here’s your action plan:
- Audit open itineraries immediately: Any unbooked or tentative trips for Q2 and summer are now at risk of significant cost increases. Get them confirmed.
- Switch to refundable or changeable fares: Flexibility is worth the premium right now. If the conflict de-escalates, you will want to rebook at lower fares without penalty.
- Front-load your summer travel bookings: Summer demand is already competing with reduced seat availability. The longer you wait, the fewer options your travelers will have.
- Set route-level fare alerts: Don’t rely on periodic checks. Daily monitoring on your most frequent corridors (especially transatlantic and APAC) is essential right now.
- Prioritize international bookings first: Domestic fares are rising too, but international routes especially those rerouting away from Middle East airspace are seeing the steepest and fastest increases.
- Revisit your travel policy’s airline preferences: With some carriers more exposed than others (see table above), now is a good time to steer travelers toward more price-stable options where possible.
- Brief your CXOs and frequent travelers: Don’t let them self-book assuming last month’s prices. Set expectations early.
Managing all of this manually across dozens of travelers is where things slip.
ITILITE’s flight booking platform helps travel managers track fares, enforce policy, and control corporate travel costs – all in one place.
The Bottom Line
Nobody knows how long this war lasts. That’s precisely the problem.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks, oil markets stabilize, and airlines quietly absorb what they can, fares could plateau and even dip slightly by late spring. That’s the optimistic scenario.
But if the conflict drags past Memorial Day(May 25), the calculus changes entirely. Airlines for America has already flagged that point as the threshold where price increases stop being temporary and start becoming structural.
And summer, historically the strongest demand period of the year, arrives with fewer seats and higher prices fighting over the same pool of travelers.
IATA’s director general Willie Walsh has warned fares could jump as much as 9%, and that estimate was made before crude closed above $100 a barrel.
Book what you can afford to change. Lock in the summer trip now. And if prices do fall, rebook, most airlines will let you capture the difference in credit.
